Looks like it will be war then? (politics?)

"facw" (facw) 01/07/2020 at 19:19 • Filed to: foregin affairs, war

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Iran retaliates for our assassination of their general. Unless nothing of ours was hit, it seems unlikely that we won’t retaliate for this.

I’m honestly quite surprised Iran acted this directly instead of using proxies or other more deniable methods.

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fintail > facw 01/07/2020 at 19:23

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The oil industry and military-industrial cabal are shrieking with joy.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > facw 01/07/2020 at 19:24

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I doubt that this incident specifically will lead to war. It’s just going to be Iranian proxies doing this. Gives them plausible deniability.

Also... how much do you think Soleimani’s replacement asked for in salary?

If my predecessor was vaporized by a US drone, I would want a pretty decent paycheque.  

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > facw 01/07/2020 at 19:27

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Oh brilliant, here we go again.

Is there any way out of this for either side and their hotheaded leaders other than escalating the conflict? At what point does congress get to decide on whether to declare war or not? Will they even be left with a decision to make?

Just excellent stuff all around.

facw > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 01/07/2020 at 19:28

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That’s what I thought would happen, e xcept apparently Iran is taking credit for this directly. And unless we can brush it off as no big deal, we will retaliate, at which point Iran would presumably have to act directly again if they weren’t content to respond asymmetrically. Easy to see things rolling out of control.

Svend > facw 01/07/2020 at 19:35

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The U.S. has already started moving B52s forward to Diego Garcia.

Which should further anger Mauritius, who have been campaigning to get the BIOT back. 

wafflesnfalafel > facw 01/07/2020 at 19:41

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yeah - I don’t quite understand what the US gets out of doing this. Gave Iran an opportunity to flex it’s regional muscle and be morally justified. There had to be something else about Soleimani we don’t know - even the official US reasoning is getting squishy now.  

Arch Duke Maxyenko, Shit Talk Extraordinaire > wafflesnfalafel 01/07/2020 at 19:48

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We just do Saudi Arabia’s bidding to protect the British oil interests 

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > facw 01/07/2020 at 19:49

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Pretty direct if you ask me. I was thinking they would try to hit a navy ship in the med or red sea as well.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > fintail 01/07/2020 at 19:50

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I’ll be okay until gas hits $5/gallon then I’m gonna be pissed. 

facw > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 01/07/2020 at 19:53

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Mining the Red Sea might be more likely, though US warships passing through the strait are definitely exposed. Of course even if they sank a super carrier, they’re are still 10 more, and it would just invite massive retaliation. Still, it seems like they shouldn’t want a wider war, so unless they are just firing off these missiles for the domestic audience and hoping they do so little damage that we can ignore them, it’s really hard to see what they are doing here. Of course, maybe pride demands a response, even if it only makes things worse.

jminer > facw 01/07/2020 at 19:54

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Well Fuckity fuck!

I was a young man the last time we started a war but I remember the hysteria and friends joining and going to war.  I do not look forward to the next generation of young men doing the same.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 01/07/2020 at 19:54

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I’m just gonna start walkin’ and hope a bomb doesn’t land on me.

punkgoose17 > wafflesnfalafel 01/07/2020 at 20:02

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Apparently the military blames Iran for losing in Iraq and Afghanistan. They don't want to blame themselves for killing tens of thousands of civilians and installing weak puppet governments.

ttyymmnn > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:05

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Well, Trump really gave them no other choice. And the implication of that statement is the Trump got exactly what he wanted. If we send troops into Iran, I can guaran -damn-tee you they won’t be welcomed as liberators.

ttyymmnn > Svend 01/07/2020 at 20:12

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BIOT?

Deal Killer - Powered by Focus > ttyymmnn 01/07/2020 at 20:17

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Indian_Ocean_Territory

Svend > ttyymmnn 01/07/2020 at 20:19

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British Indian Ocean Territory. 

ttyymmnn > Svend 01/07/2020 at 20:20

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Thx. 

ttyymmnn > Deal Killer - Powered by Focus 01/07/2020 at 20:20

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Thx. 

Deal Killer - Powered by Focus > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:21

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Ok, downside is the US and Iran continue to ratchet up hostilities, leading to a US invasion of Iran, which would , let’s be honest here, be a disaster.

Upside is, maybe Trump will cancel his planned “rally” in Toledo tomorrow, and I can get downtown to my office without having to deal with all the closed streets because of it.

TheD0k_2many toys 2little time > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:23

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I mean war is not really the best answer but it sure looks like its headed that way. Luckily for us we can launch a lot of stuff from the Med and Red sea into Iran and be relatively safe

Nibby > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:25

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Berang > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:29

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Let the penis waving begin.

pip bip - choose Corrour > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:32

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Here we go again 

OPPOsaurus WRX > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:33

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i’ve been reading TheDrive a lot. Tyler seems to really know whats going on over there. The updates are nuts. Shits going crazy. there i s no way Trumps going to let this slide. Sounds like planes are up. Iraqi casualties..... this isn’ t going to go well for Iran, well anybody really but especially Iran.

Svend > ttyymmnn 01/07/2020 at 20:35

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No worries.

Diego Garcia is a contested territory between the U.K. and Mauritius. On Mauritius getting independence from the U.K., the U.K. bought Diego Garcia off of them, but in more recent years Mauritius has said they were short changed and now want it back. The U.N. have said it should be given back, but Diego Garcia is now very much a U.S. base (it’s overseen by the British).

But it's not like Ascension Islands which is a British base, but the runway belongs to the U.S. DoD. Which is why there are issues, it needs resurfaced but the U.S. are dragging their feet and so the U.K. airbridge from the U.K. to the Falklands, is using using Carpe Verde while Ascension is down and maybe until 2022. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ttyymmnn 01/07/2020 at 20:37

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-50924704

It is interesting as the UK may loose their seat on the UN security cou nc i l.

RallyWrench > fintail 01/07/2020 at 20:38

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Hawks buy stocks before sending other people’s kids to war. 

RallyWrench > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:43

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Boy, who could have seen this coming?

I’m just gonna... yeah...

.I picked a bad time stop drinking.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > facw 01/07/2020 at 20:47

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BaconSandwich is tasty. > OPPOsaurus WRX 01/07/2020 at 21:04

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There are no winners in war, only losers.

arl > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 01/07/2020 at 21:35

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So yea, I’m going to need you to match my 401k in order to take this job. 

MrDakka > fintail 01/07/2020 at 21:38

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I sure am. Share prices of $NOC, $LMT skyrocketed in after hours trading. But I don't think it's going to be a full scale war. Probably tit for tat missile strikes. If there is a ground invasion, buckle up its gonna be a long haul

MrDakka > wafflesnfalafel 01/07/2020 at 21:43

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Apparently, according to NPR, the National Security Council unanimously agreed on the missile assassnation strike . If so, whatever intel they had must have not only had a pretty high confidence level, but was serious enough to risk another multidecade war  foreign entanglement.

DipodomysDeserti > BaconSandwich is tasty. 01/07/2020 at 21:51

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Just a heads up, that’s a Neville Chamberlain quote defending his policy to appease Hitler.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > DipodomysDeserti 01/07/2020 at 21:54

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Well, that I didn’t know.

Maybe I should rephrase it - there are no winners in war, except executives of military contractor companies.

nFamousCJ - Keeper of Stringbean, Gengars and a Deezul > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 01/07/2020 at 22:04

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Operation Praying Mantis comes to mind. 

wafflesnfalafel > MrDakka 01/07/2020 at 22:08

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Yeah - tough decision. Do you knock off one “baddie” in exchange for how many US military and contractor lives you know will be forfeited in the resulting “entanglement”.  I wonder what Putin is doing right now...  

DipodomysDeserti > wafflesnfalafel 01/07/2020 at 22:13

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Iran has very little support in the ME. They're threatening to attack various other ME nations if the US attacks them, just to give you an idea. Not a whole lot of concerns about maintaining a moral high ground on their part.

MrDakka > wafflesnfalafel 01/07/2020 at 22:19

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Thats for future Trump to spin into saying how he singlehandedly saved the US.  This way he can say he was “saving lives” and draw attention away from the impeachment stuff.

As for Putin, if I was him, I’d be sending “military observers” to recover any potential downed US hardware to reverse engineer or sell to the Chinese. E-sigint team as well and actual observers to see how older Russian hardware fares. Probably also throw in a false flag operation of “US troops” killing babies or some shit and how the “brave Russian non-combatants helped save the babies /resist the imperialist US forces” or whatever bullshit he wants to spout.

My bird IS the word > facw 01/07/2020 at 22:49

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Ill wait till the casualties are posted. Rocket artillery isn’t known for it’s incredible accuracy. Feeling for our boys right now.

Hey, maybe iraq will kick us out and iran will be left with no serious military options! Whos ready for billions of dollars policing a desert?!

My bird IS the word > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 01/07/2020 at 22:51

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I would insist on not leaving the country to personally instruct insurgents to be stipulated in my contract....

Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom > facw 01/07/2020 at 23:17

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Willing to bet satellites are watching that area like a hawk right now for Iranian navy ops. 

facw > My bird IS the word 01/07/2020 at 23:37

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Our illustrious leader says it’s all good:

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The Iraqis are claiming no casualties as well. No US loses would open a path for us  to laugh at Iranian impotence rather than launch a serious counter attack, but I guess well see if that’s the case, and if we are willing to take that path.

fintail > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 01/08/2020 at 00:55

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Funny, I’ve always thought that was a factor in the 08 election, and here we are in an election year with similarly odious GOPers.

fintail > RallyWrench 01/08/2020 at 00:56

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Chickenhawks especially.  I hear bone spurs afflict that species.

fintail > MrDakka 01/08/2020 at 00:57

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It’s a great distraction from domestic malfeasance, too.

Ground invasion is probably too risky politically, yeah.   Just some skirmishes to change the media cycle.

RallyWrench > fintail 01/08/2020 at 01:02

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A common complication of affluenza in their  more poorly  developed males , I’ve heard.

MrDakka > fintail 01/08/2020 at 01:25

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My bird IS the word > facw 01/08/2020 at 08:41

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Thats pretty damn lucky. Casualties include injuries so that means nobody got so much as a papercut from this. CNNs article was pretty good. Minus the jab at fox news, that seems like more of a self burn to me. Maybe a hollow show of force is a deescalation.

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEG6ic0FRrb14q9gisCOW1JgqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMPvTpgU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > fintail 01/08/2020 at 09:22

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Oil prices are actually down the last couple days. Only went up $3 (5%) after S oleimani was killed. Different ball game now that the US is the top oil producer.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MrDakka 01/08/2020 at 09:26

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Yeah, no way Trump made this decision by himself. For all of his faults and aggressive talk, he does actually seem hesitant to enter into military conflict.

I do worry just how much revenge Iran is willing to take in response. They’ve always played the long game, so the deepest cut may come a long time from now...